The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issues its 2010 hurricane season forecast, predicting one of the strongest seasons on record -- and reiterating fears that the Gulf oil spill may be impacted by the severe weather.
Hurricane season for the western Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico begins June 1 and lasts through Nov. 30. That's when about 90 percent of the storms make themselves present, and the predictions for this season are grim -- which could wreak further havoc on the Gulf Coast.
NOAA's forecast predicts as many as 23 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, with three to seven becoming serious enough to be classified as major hurricanes. Named storms come with top winds of 39 mph or higher. The agency worries that as many as 14 could turn into hurricanes, with winds in excess of 74 mph, and three to seven could be Category 3, 4 or 5 storms with winds of at least 111 mph.
“If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared.”
This jibes with earlier predictions of a severe hurricane season from Accuweather and scientists at Colorado State.
On the ground, a hurricane can be deadly. From space, they're works of art. Here are 18 images of hurricanes captured over the years by astronauts on the International Space Station.
Related Links
As Workers Race to Plug Oil Spill, Hurricane Season Looms
Mexico worries seasonal shift in currents could bring Gulf oil spill to Mexican shores
Weakening El Nino conditions could complicate forecasting hurricane season
"It's going to be a bigger than average hurricane season and it's going to start sooner," Accuweather's Joe Bastardi told FoxNews.com in May. And Colorado State University meteorologists Philip Klotzbach and William Gray also predict rough weather in their extended-range hurricane forecast.
"The main uncertainty in this outlook is how much above normal the season will be. Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Nina develops this summer," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. The intense forecast is based on the weakening of El Nino, a Pacific Ocean phenomenon that creates strong wind shear that weakens Atlantic storms.
"At present we are in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Nina to develop."
Predictions of an active hurricane season bring the risk that oil from the DeepWater oil spill may be affected by the dramatic seasonal storms. Early predictions suggested that oil may be pushed into the Loop Current that circles Florida and be carried around the state and up the Atlantic coast.
In May, Accuweather's Bastardi expressed his concerns about this eventuality. "This oil slick is probably going to be impacted in some way by this hurricane season," the chief long-range meteorologist and hurricane forecaster said.
"It's going to be a bigger than average hurricane season and it's going to start sooner," he said.
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NOTE: I do not want to make light of these events, I have lived through one or two myself, having lived in south Texas (including Katrina). My intent is merely to show hurricanes are random events of Mother Nature, and not predictable as suggested in the article. Hurricanes develop on their own, based on many factors, and not merely due to El Nino or the so called Global Warming factor we are being led to believe.
Weather is weather! I can't give man the ego or the self-centered satisfaction to think we have the capability to control or effect Mother Nature - we ain't as powerful as we think we might be (yet). As of this date, there is nothing we can do or have done ourselves to create a storm much less control a storm - we can't even predict storms.
Let's watch these predictions....starting from the bottom up. (Based on NOAA records):
Earliest hurricane to strike the United States: Alma struck northwest Florida on June 9, 1966. Actually, the Earliest Hurricane formed in a calendar year was a March 6, 1908 Hurricane, and the Strongest May hurricanes: Hurricane Able 1951 (Category 3), 1908 Hurricane (Category ?), Alma 1970 (Cat 1), Tropical Storm 1933, May 15, 1887 (70mph) & May 17, 1887 (60 mph), earliest two storms active at once. Tropical Storm One, May 22, 1948 (50mph). Tropical Storm One, May 19, 1940. There have been four hurricanes that have existed simultaneously twice: August 22, 1893 and September 25-27, 1998 with Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl as hurricanes. In 1971 there were 5 tropical cyclones simultaneously, but only 2 were hurricanes.
The three deadliest recorded hurricanes during the last hundred years were: Katrina which is estimated to be responsible for at least $81.2 billion in damages, breaking Hurricane Andrew's record in 1992, making it the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history and killing 1,836 (scores more are still missing, the final death toll may never be known). The 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane, in Florida, is estimated to have killed 2,500+. The 1900 Galveston, Tx Hurricane remains the deadliest natural disaster in United States history, with a death toll of approximately 8,000 - 12,000
Hurricane season for the western Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico begins June 1 and lasts through Nov. 30. That's when about 90 percent of the storms make themselves present, and the predictions for this season are grim -- which could wreak further havoc on the Gulf Coast.
NOAA's forecast predicts as many as 23 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, with three to seven becoming serious enough to be classified as major hurricanes. Named storms come with top winds of 39 mph or higher. The agency worries that as many as 14 could turn into hurricanes, with winds in excess of 74 mph, and three to seven could be Category 3, 4 or 5 storms with winds of at least 111 mph.
“If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared.”
This jibes with earlier predictions of a severe hurricane season from Accuweather and scientists at Colorado State.
On the ground, a hurricane can be deadly. From space, they're works of art. Here are 18 images of hurricanes captured over the years by astronauts on the International Space Station.
Related Links
As Workers Race to Plug Oil Spill, Hurricane Season Looms
Mexico worries seasonal shift in currents could bring Gulf oil spill to Mexican shores
Weakening El Nino conditions could complicate forecasting hurricane season
"It's going to be a bigger than average hurricane season and it's going to start sooner," Accuweather's Joe Bastardi told FoxNews.com in May. And Colorado State University meteorologists Philip Klotzbach and William Gray also predict rough weather in their extended-range hurricane forecast.
"The main uncertainty in this outlook is how much above normal the season will be. Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Nina develops this summer," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. The intense forecast is based on the weakening of El Nino, a Pacific Ocean phenomenon that creates strong wind shear that weakens Atlantic storms.
"At present we are in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Nina to develop."
Predictions of an active hurricane season bring the risk that oil from the DeepWater oil spill may be affected by the dramatic seasonal storms. Early predictions suggested that oil may be pushed into the Loop Current that circles Florida and be carried around the state and up the Atlantic coast.
In May, Accuweather's Bastardi expressed his concerns about this eventuality. "This oil slick is probably going to be impacted in some way by this hurricane season," the chief long-range meteorologist and hurricane forecaster said.
"It's going to be a bigger than average hurricane season and it's going to start sooner," he said.
**************************************************************
NOTE: I do not want to make light of these events, I have lived through one or two myself, having lived in south Texas (including Katrina). My intent is merely to show hurricanes are random events of Mother Nature, and not predictable as suggested in the article. Hurricanes develop on their own, based on many factors, and not merely due to El Nino or the so called Global Warming factor we are being led to believe.
Weather is weather! I can't give man the ego or the self-centered satisfaction to think we have the capability to control or effect Mother Nature - we ain't as powerful as we think we might be (yet). As of this date, there is nothing we can do or have done ourselves to create a storm much less control a storm - we can't even predict storms.
Let's watch these predictions....starting from the bottom up. (Based on NOAA records):
Earliest hurricane to strike the United States: Alma struck northwest Florida on June 9, 1966. Actually, the Earliest Hurricane formed in a calendar year was a March 6, 1908 Hurricane, and the Strongest May hurricanes: Hurricane Able 1951 (Category 3), 1908 Hurricane (Category ?), Alma 1970 (Cat 1), Tropical Storm 1933, May 15, 1887 (70mph) & May 17, 1887 (60 mph), earliest two storms active at once. Tropical Storm One, May 22, 1948 (50mph). Tropical Storm One, May 19, 1940. There have been four hurricanes that have existed simultaneously twice: August 22, 1893 and September 25-27, 1998 with Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl as hurricanes. In 1971 there were 5 tropical cyclones simultaneously, but only 2 were hurricanes.
The three deadliest recorded hurricanes during the last hundred years were: Katrina which is estimated to be responsible for at least $81.2 billion in damages, breaking Hurricane Andrew's record in 1992, making it the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history and killing 1,836 (scores more are still missing, the final death toll may never be known). The 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane, in Florida, is estimated to have killed 2,500+. The 1900 Galveston, Tx Hurricane remains the deadliest natural disaster in United States history, with a death toll of approximately 8,000 - 12,000
Bob's Addendum...it not the earliest as was predicted.... so far their batting average is: 0.0%
ReplyDeleteStill batting 0.0%...it's not what they "thunk" it would be like this season. Perhaps now more individuals will begin to realize that "prognostication" should not be left to the weather forecasters. Seasons are seasonal - not predictable.
ReplyDeleteA new year is around the corner, and some climate scientists and environmental activists say that means we're one step closer to a climate Armageddon. But are we really?
ReplyDeletePredicting the weather -- especially a decade or more in advance -- is unbelievably challenging. What's the track record of those most worried about global warming? Decades ago, what did prominent scientists think the environment would be like in 2010? FoxNews.com has compiled eight of the most egregiously mistaken predictions, and asked the predictors to reflect on what really happened.
1. Within a few years "children just aren't going to know what snow is." Snowfall will be "a very rare and exciting event." Dr. David Viner, senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, interviewed by the UK Independent, March 20, 2000.
Ten years later, in December 2009, London was hit by the heaviest snowfall seen in 20 years. And just last week, a snowstorm forced Heathrow airport to shut down, stranding thousands of Christmas travelers.
A spokesman for the government-funded British Council, where Viner now works as the lead climate change expert, told FoxNews.com that climate science had improved since the prediction was made.
"Over the past decade, climate science has moved on considerably and there is now more understanding about the impact climate change will have on weather patterns in the coming years," British Council spokesman Mark Herbert said. "However, Dr Viner believes that his general predictions are still relevant."
Herbert also pointed to another prediction from Viner in the same article, in which Viner predicted that "heavy snow would return occasionally" and that it would "probably cause chaos in 20 years time." Other scientists said "a few years" was simply too short a time frame for kids to forget what snow was.
"I'd say at some point, say 50 years from now, it might be right. If he said a few years, that was an unwise prediction," said Michael Oppenheimer, director of Princeton University's Program in Science, Technology and Environmental Policy.
Of course, Oppenheimer himself is known for controversial global warming scenarios.
2. "[By] 1995, the greenhouse effect would be desolating the heartlands of North America and Eurasia with horrific drought, causing crop failures and food riots…[By 1996] The Platte River of Nebraska would be dry, while a continent-wide black blizzard of prairie topsoil will stop traffic on interstates, strip paint from houses and shut down computers." Michael Oppenheimer, published in "Dead Heat," St. Martin's Press, 1990.
Oppenheimer told FoxNews.com that he was trying to illustrate one possible outcome of failing to curb emissions, not making a specific prediction. He added that the gist of his story had in fact come true, even if the events had not occurred in the U.S.